POLL

Far too often in Africa, polling is a misunderstood art. Either politicians reject the polls for being inaccurate or expect the outcome of an election to follow exactly the poll. Opinion polls shouldn’t be viewed either way. The way opinion polls need to be regarded, is as a snap-shot of what people are thinking of on the day the questions were asked.

In the case of the recently released opinion poll by the Steadman Group, there are a couple things to keep in mind. The Steadman poll was in the field from October 10-15. As the old saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. It is usually in the last fortnight of the election campaign is when the electorate truly begin to firm up their choices.

The other thing that must be kept in mind in regards to the Steadman poll is there are some real oddities that must be taken in consideration when judging the validity of the poll. When the poll is broken down by region there are several questions that arise. For example, in the poll, Steadman has Rupiah Banda ahead of Michael Sata in Sata’s heartland of Lusaka.

It is also worth questioning how the poll put Michael Sata is doing as well as suggested in the Western Province, a region that the late President, HE Levy Mwanawasa did exceedingly well in 2006.

To anyone following Zambian elections over the past 8 years, most would find it hard to believe either that Michael Sata would be able to win the Zambian presidency without taking Lusaka or on the contrary that Rupiah Banda would win in Lusaka, but not win the election.

So, what conclusions can be drawn then from the poll? The answer is that it is hard to tell with polls.

However, as another old saying goes, there is only one poll that means anything and that is the one on Election Day.