Sata's Plan

Michael Sata continues his attack on the reputation of the Election Commission of Zambia and again accuses them of preparing to rig the forthcoming election.

His tirade is nothing more than a desperate attempt to inflate the expectations of his cadre and bait them in to reacting violently when (and not if) he loses the presidential by-election.

This is hardly a new tactic for a politician who has built his reputation by being a bully! If anyone needs a reminder of Sata’s past tactical thinking, they just need to review this BBC article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5396884.stm) and look at these photos to remind themselves of the sort of thing that the PF candidate is planning.

The Sata strategy is one that is employed when a candidate knows he is going to lose the election, but wants to unfairly affect the outcome through a program of intimidation once the results are announced. Normally this strategy would be expected to have little potential success but recent events around Africa, namely the elections in Kenya and Zimbabwe, prompt concerns. Because their election results were set aside and an ‘Africa Solution to an African problem’ was negotiated through mediation. It is not by accident that recent stories have been placed in our media trying to set the expectation that a Kenya or Zimbabwe government of national unity will be necessary after the election.

The actions of Sata and his followers have not gone unnoticed, as reports in today’s paper have stated. The Inspector General of the Police, Ephraim Mateyo has summoned the Anti-Rigging of Zambia president, Kelvin Bwalya to report to police headquarters or face arrest. The Inspector General intends to warn the Sata supporter that stern action will be taken against those who continue to make statements of their intent to take power through unconstitutional means.

This is actually what the Sata campaign is attempting to do and is something that Zambians need to be aware of, it is your duty to spread this message; the Zambian people do not want a coup d’etat, they want a smooth transition and a true democratic election to find someone to fulfill the Late President’s term.

Zambia Must Not Sleepwalk Into An Electoral Nightmare

With ten days to go all three parties are conducting the usual campaign trail travels. UPND is targeting the Southern Province, Lusaka and to a degree the Copperbelt. PF are concentrating on Lusaka, Copperbelt and occasionally visit places like Northern Province. It looks like the MMD is the only party conducting a national campaign. As you would expect allegations and counter-allegations are being made.

All candidates are saying only they have the solution to our countries problems and we have to vote for them, and so on. So all in all it is business as normal; in that respect Zambian politics is actually quite healthy.

Where the differences do appear, and quite starkly, is on how they are predicting the outcome. We hear the usual “…hard battle ahead but we are confident we will win” sort of lines from the relevant spokesmen. What is interesting is that PF, and more recently UPND seem resigned to defeat. How else can one explain the allegations of vote-rigging, predicted electoral corruption and impending malfeasance? Similar allegations were made following the last election in 2006, and readers may well remember the violence and rioting by PF cadres. This time around the allegations are being made well before polling day, why?

The answer lies in the question ‘Do PF themselves think they can win?’ The apparent answer is ‘no’. The considered opinion is that PF, knowing it cannot win has looked to recent events in Zimbabwe and Kenya for an electoral solution. PF strategists have concluded they cannot win an outright victory so the only option available is to get into government by stealth. Such strategy and such talk is defeatist and begs the question, “Why is PF in the running at all?”

The answer can be found in Kenya and Zimbabwe. In both cases the winner of the majority vote was robbed by the second place candidate. Both Raila Odinga and Morgan Tsvangerai should be President’s of their respective countries, but they are not. The real victims in all of this are not the politicians themselves but the voters of Kenya and Zimbabwe, not forgetting democracy itself. If our democracy is hijacked in this way then it is us, the Zambian people who will have been robbed.

Our country will enter into uncharted territory; how would a MMD/PF coalition actually work, how long would it be before there is a split and we are once again going to the voting stations? Can you really see HH in government? What position would Guy Scott hold? Would Sata really be prepared to go as No. 2 to Rupiah Banda?

Many of these scenarios are too ludicrous even to contemplate. Already we see that the Zimbabwe ‘coalition’ falling apart – actually it cannot fall apart as it never really got going in the first place. The prospects are not good for that country. The message is this: Zambia must not sleepwalk into an electoral nightmare.

Zambia has a healthy and well respected democratic history. It is to be remembered that the PF allegations of 2006 were proved to be unfounded by both the Zambian Electoral Commission and the International Observers who oversaw the elections. If any political party has fears of impending electoral malpractice it should go directly to the Electoral Commission, SADC Observers and EU Electoral Mission and voice its concerns. To create political mischief and make allegations from the sidelines damages not only themselves but also Zambia as a nation, and that would be wrong.

The rule of law or the law of rule?

There are certain skills and understandings a potential President should posses. The most important of which, no matter which country the individual seeks to govern, is the understanding of the rule of law. The judicial processes and the organs which enforce the law should remain untouched by political shenanigans and meddling. All citizens of a country, from the very top to the very bottom should maintain a healthy respect for the law of the land. Without it officials and friends of those in power soon think they are above the law, corruption flourishes and the reputation of the country dives into the gutter.

It is most interesting then to review the stances taken by the three main candidates on the issue in this election (alas Miyanda does not really count). Both HH and RB remain fairly onside on the issue, neither has threatened to abuse the legal organs of the country and neither has threatened to arrest those who do not agree with them. Threatening to arrest people because they do not agree with you is a sure sign of a megalomaniac and a person with dictatorial tendencies.

One would think that someone with a legal background would understand all of this and indeed, would be a champion of the country’s legal system. Michael Sata was once a policeman so he should fit the bill. After all we expect the police to uphold the law, don’t we? Alas no, he seems to think that the legal system is for him to play with and to use as is his want. Only he has threatened to arrest somebody, you will not be surprised to hear that RB and top MMD officials are his intended victims. That PF mouthpiece the Post newspaper ran a headline ‘Banda to face arrest for corruption if Sata wins’ (3rd Oct 2008). Mr Sata was quoted as saying “I will deal with them and sort them out, sort them out clean”. He also went on to say of Mike Mulongoti that he would be arrested for trying to stifle freedom of the press and for dictating what the press should write. What is most worrying is the ‘I’ in all of this. Had he said ‘I will ask the police to investigate’, or, ‘I will ask the ECZ to look into the allegations’ then we would have nothing to worry about. But no, it is the ‘I’ that damns him as ignorant of the rule of law, as an abuser of power. Nobody will be safe if Sata becomes President on 30th October.

Some great politicians have been to prison for their beliefs or allegiances. Think of the twenty-seven years of incarceration of Nelson Mandela, our own Kenneth Kaunda was locked up by Chiluba, so was Rupiah Banda. Michael Sata too has been to prison but sadly for Zambia not for political beliefs or for any revolutionary struggle. His time in prison was for theft. Sata is a common criminal with a criminal record to prove it. He is certainly no material for a future President.

The most worrying thing is that his friends at the Post can say what they like, they never retract the false statements they make about other candidates; as far as they are concerned Sata can do no wrong. This is all the more strange when one considers that until a few weeks before the campaign it considered Sata one of the most evil and corrupt people on the planet. So why then do Sata’s newfound police powers not seem to apply to the Post? Why has the Post suddenly converted itself into the ‘I love Sata’ fan club? These are questions the Zambian people would love to know the answers to. As for me I have a word of warning to those at the Post, beware strange bedfellows.