POLL

Far too often in Africa, polling is a misunderstood art. Either politicians reject the polls for being inaccurate or expect the outcome of an election to follow exactly the poll. Opinion polls shouldn’t be viewed either way. The way opinion polls need to be regarded, is as a snap-shot of what people are thinking of on the day the questions were asked.

In the case of the recently released opinion poll by the Steadman Group, there are a couple things to keep in mind. The Steadman poll was in the field from October 10-15. As the old saying goes, a week is a long time in politics. It is usually in the last fortnight of the election campaign is when the electorate truly begin to firm up their choices.

The other thing that must be kept in mind in regards to the Steadman poll is there are some real oddities that must be taken in consideration when judging the validity of the poll. When the poll is broken down by region there are several questions that arise. For example, in the poll, Steadman has Rupiah Banda ahead of Michael Sata in Sata’s heartland of Lusaka.

It is also worth questioning how the poll put Michael Sata is doing as well as suggested in the Western Province, a region that the late President, HE Levy Mwanawasa did exceedingly well in 2006.

To anyone following Zambian elections over the past 8 years, most would find it hard to believe either that Michael Sata would be able to win the Zambian presidency without taking Lusaka or on the contrary that Rupiah Banda would win in Lusaka, but not win the election.

So, what conclusions can be drawn then from the poll? The answer is that it is hard to tell with polls.

However, as another old saying goes, there is only one poll that means anything and that is the one on Election Day.

Constitutional Reform – An Electoral Perspective

Why are we having this election? Think about it. No, your first answer is wrong. It is not because Levy Mwanawasa died.

It is because our constitution does not allow for a Vice-President to take over and complete the term in office. In Zambia Vice-President’s are chosen after Election Day, so have no electoral mandate themselves. This is exactly why we are now holding this by-election; Rupiah Banda needs a mandate from the people to govern. This Constitutional deficiency has given people like Sata and HH another chance at getting elected – for them this loophole in the Constitution is a gift.

In America the Republicans have John McCain and Sarah Palin on their ‘ticket’. The Democrat’s ‘ticket’ is Barak Obama and Joe Biden. When JFK was assassinated in Dallas Vice-President Lyndon Johnson was sworn in as President on the plane back to Washington. So within hours America had a new President. Government continued and although the American nation was in mourning it was not in crisis. When Richard Nixon was forced to resign over the Watergate scandal Vice-President Gerald Ford took over with immediate effect.

Had our constitution allowed for Rupiah Banda to be sworn in as President the Zambia would be in the same situation. We would not have to be spending billions of Kwacha on printing ballot papers and other paraphernalia required to hold an election. So when this is all over can we please get back to reviewing the Constitution. Can we please change the law so that a Vice-Presidential candidate is known before polling day? Let that person also have an electoral mandate to run the country in the event of the untimely demise of the President.

Choosing a suitable running mate will tell the people a lot about the Presidential wannabee. We would be able to compare the ‘tickets’ of the parties involved and we would know exactly how genuine they are about the political agendas. Mind you it is worth remembering that Sata tried to change the Constitution in favour of a Chiluba third term – perish the thought. Had he succeeded we would not have this Constitutional crisis; we would be living in a dictatorship.

BREAKING NEWS: Why Is the Post Being So Vicious?

BREAKING NEWS:

Over the last month a shift has taken place at the Zambian Post, it coincided with Zambian officials announcing the need for a by-election to select a President to stand for the remainder of the term left open by the recent death of HE Levy Mwanawasa. The Post, a long time supporter of the late President has switched sides. They chose not to endorse the Acting President, Rupiah Banda; rather they threw their support behind the challenger Michael Sata.

This shift seems even stranger when you consider the fact that for many years the Post has vehemently and consistently attacked Michael Sata for being a charlatan, a crook and a thief. The reason for this sudden reversal was the fact that Post has financial problems. Zambian Airways is owned by The Post (30%), along with a subsidiary of Seaboard (National Milling Corporation) (12.5%) and JCN Holdings (57.5%).

Their relations are even closer than they seem, as inquiries discovered that the chairman of National Milling is also the chairman of Zambian Airways and furthermore sits on the board of the Post. Zambian Airways are in serious financial trouble - this is no secret. They are in arrears to the Airport Corporation at a rate of about $225,000 US a month. The extent of their financial difficulty was demonstrated recently when Zambian Airways had to announce they needed to cut back their flights, suspending their Lusaka to Mfuwe service.

The Post initially supported the MMD, but expected the Finance Minister, Peter Ng’andu Magande to win the nomination. Magande had been sympathetic to a bailout plan for the doomed airline. However, when Rupiah Banda secured the MMD nomination, the Post’s position did a complete about turn and they began their unprecedented and mainly unfounded attacks. This was because Rupiah Banda has supported the position proposed by Transport Minister Dora Siliya, proposing a business based solution rather than a government bailout.

It is rumored that a deal has been struck with the opposition candidate and the Zambian Airways Group. In return for this deal to bail them out after the election, the Post has jettisoned all sense of fair journalist practice and started an unmitigated smear campaign against the Acting President Rupiah Banda. Banda has filed for and has been granted an injunction against the Post, but this has had little effect in curbing the newspaper from continuing their unethical campaign to defame and discredit his character.

An unknown in this ongoing and incestuous saga, is the position of the American conglomerate Seaboard. Are they complicit in their shareholders, Zambian Airways and the Post’s attempts to manipulate the outcome in the upcoming presidential election? Until now, Seaboard has been conspicuously silent on the issue. Their Corporate Social Responsibility should, one would think, implore them to make their position on this issue clear.

If a situation like this arose in the current presidential election campaign in the United States, would Seaboard sit by and be as mute on the subject as they are here, in Zambia?

The rule of law or the law of rule?

There are certain skills and understandings a potential President should posses. The most important of which, no matter which country the individual seeks to govern, is the understanding of the rule of law. The judicial processes and the organs which enforce the law should remain untouched by political shenanigans and meddling. All citizens of a country, from the very top to the very bottom should maintain a healthy respect for the law of the land. Without it officials and friends of those in power soon think they are above the law, corruption flourishes and the reputation of the country dives into the gutter.

It is most interesting then to review the stances taken by the three main candidates on the issue in this election (alas Miyanda does not really count). Both HH and RB remain fairly onside on the issue, neither has threatened to abuse the legal organs of the country and neither has threatened to arrest those who do not agree with them. Threatening to arrest people because they do not agree with you is a sure sign of a megalomaniac and a person with dictatorial tendencies.

One would think that someone with a legal background would understand all of this and indeed, would be a champion of the country’s legal system. Michael Sata was once a policeman so he should fit the bill. After all we expect the police to uphold the law, don’t we? Alas no, he seems to think that the legal system is for him to play with and to use as is his want. Only he has threatened to arrest somebody, you will not be surprised to hear that RB and top MMD officials are his intended victims. That PF mouthpiece the Post newspaper ran a headline ‘Banda to face arrest for corruption if Sata wins’ (3rd Oct 2008). Mr Sata was quoted as saying “I will deal with them and sort them out, sort them out clean”. He also went on to say of Mike Mulongoti that he would be arrested for trying to stifle freedom of the press and for dictating what the press should write. What is most worrying is the ‘I’ in all of this. Had he said ‘I will ask the police to investigate’, or, ‘I will ask the ECZ to look into the allegations’ then we would have nothing to worry about. But no, it is the ‘I’ that damns him as ignorant of the rule of law, as an abuser of power. Nobody will be safe if Sata becomes President on 30th October.

Some great politicians have been to prison for their beliefs or allegiances. Think of the twenty-seven years of incarceration of Nelson Mandela, our own Kenneth Kaunda was locked up by Chiluba, so was Rupiah Banda. Michael Sata too has been to prison but sadly for Zambia not for political beliefs or for any revolutionary struggle. His time in prison was for theft. Sata is a common criminal with a criminal record to prove it. He is certainly no material for a future President.

The most worrying thing is that his friends at the Post can say what they like, they never retract the false statements they make about other candidates; as far as they are concerned Sata can do no wrong. This is all the more strange when one considers that until a few weeks before the campaign it considered Sata one of the most evil and corrupt people on the planet. So why then do Sata’s newfound police powers not seem to apply to the Post? Why has the Post suddenly converted itself into the ‘I love Sata’ fan club? These are questions the Zambian people would love to know the answers to. As for me I have a word of warning to those at the Post, beware strange bedfellows.

Michael Sata gets ringing endorsement from leading Western Journalist for being Xenophobic!

Michael Sata recently picked up a rather dubious endorsement. In an article published in The London Daily Mail and then this weekend in the Post, Journalist Peter Hitchens backed Mr. Sata in the upcoming by-election for the presidency of Zambia on October 30, 2008.


The reason for the endorsement was based on Mr. Sata’s avowed dislike of the Chinese living and working in Zambia. The logic behind Hitchen’s endorsement is that by supporting Sata, it will be a knock for what Hitchens has called a new Chinese Imperialism that he claims is bringing more corruption to Africa.

There is no doubt that development in Africa has been held back by corruption, but endorsing a politician that has never been able to keep a Ministerial job because scandal has followed him everywhere is ludicrous!

Dating back to the early 1990s scandals and corruption have followed Sata like stink follows a rubbish tip. Putting Michael Sata in charge of Zambia and expecting him to clean up corruption in the country is like putting the patient in charge of the asylum.

Ironically, the endorsement has come just at the time that Michael Sata has found it politically necessary to flip flop his viewpoint on the issue of the Chinese in Zambia. Only recently did the Post publish an article about him being friends and welcoming Chinese investors and here he is now, wanting them out again. Such puerile turncoat behaviour is hardly suitable for someone who wants to lead a nation. World leaders and the international community would condemn such inability to be decisive instantly.

Michael Sata also lacks the necessary skills to be his country’s leader. He has made his name as a stone thrower, a party wrecker and a rebel. He is not a man that works well with other people; the city of Lusaka is presently without a mayor because he has sacked the previous incumbent. 26 MPs and 380 members of the PF have left the party in disgust. They now have come out and are publicly supporting Rupiah Banda’s campaign to be President.

What Zambia needs is leadership that can continue the recent success that has brought economic stability, and not a Michael Sata presidency that will return Zambia to the bad old days of corrupt and abusive government which plagues so many African nations.

Sata's Attack Dogs Sent Packing!

The Lusaka High Court has ruled that Acting president, Rupiah Banda, should continue to enjoy presidential privileges and benefits.

This is in a case in which the Anti-Rigging Zambia Limited sued Mr. Banda claiming that he had ceased to be vice president from the time he filed in his nomination papers for the presidential elections.

The Anti-Rigging Zambia limited had contended that Mr. Banda was not entitled to perform presidential functions or the benefits of that office or use public resources to fund his campaign.

But Lusaka High Court judge, Philip Musonda, ruled that article 43 (1) gave the acting president absolute immunity from having proceedings instituted against him in any court of law in respect of anything done or omitted to be done in his private capacity.

The judge ordered that Mr. Banda will continue to act as president and enjoy the privileges and benefits attached to that office until the democratic process resolves the issue of the presidency.

Judge Musonda noted that the case was a constitutional matter that had raised a novel issue.

Attorney General, Mumba Malila, submitted that according to article 43 (1) of the constitution, a person holding the office of the president was not amenable to criminal or civil proceedings in respect of anything done during his tenure of office.

The Anti- Rigging Zambia Limited was represented by Lusaka lawyer, Kelvin Bwalya, who is also a member of the NGO, launched recently.